Bihar exit polls 2025: NDA poised for big comeback as exit polls predict clear edge over Mahagathbandhan

Bihar exit polls 2025: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power in Bihar, according to several exit polls released after the second phase of voting concluded on November 11. Most surveys have projected a clear edge for the NDA over the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress.

According to the Dainik Bhaskar exit poll, the NDA is expected to win between 145 and 160 seats, while Matrize has forecast a slightly higher range of 147 to 167 seats. P-Marq has projected the NDA to bag 142–162 seats, and People’s Pulse has given the ruling alliance 133–159 seats. In comparison, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure between 70 and 98 seats across the surveys.

While these projections paint a bright picture for the ruling alliance, political analysts have cautioned that exit polls are not always accurate. Past elections have shown that predictions can go wrong, so the actual results may still surprise everyone when votes are counted on November 14.

End of an era for Nitish Kumar?

The Bihar elections 2025 hold special significance as they are widely seen as the last electoral battle for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has led the state for nearly two decades. The Janata Dal (United) chief has remained a central figure in Bihar’s politics since 2005, steering the state through multiple alliances and political shifts.

On the other hand, RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav has already passed the baton to his son Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, who led the Mahagathbandhan’s campaign as the opposition’s chief ministerial candidate.

High-decibel campaign and competitive promises

This year’s election campaign was high-octane and fiercely competitive. Bihar witnessed a triangular contest between the NDA, the Mahagathbandhan  and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party.

The NDA based its campaign on developmental work and welfare schemes, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah addressing multiple rallies across the state. They revived the “jungle raaj” narrative to caution voters against a return of RJD’s rule.

In an attempt to woo women voters, the NDA promised Rs 10,000 for starting small businesses and 125 MW of free electricity.

The Mahagathbandhan countered with equally ambitious promises, including one government job per family and a one-time grant of Rs 30,000 for economically weaker women.

Meanwhile, the Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, highlighted issues related to alleged irregularities in voter lists and accused the BJP of “vote theft”. The NDA, in response, accused the opposition alliance of supporting “ghuspaithiyas” (illegal immigrants).

Voter turnout and phase details

The Bihar assembly election was held in two phases. The first phase took place on November 6 with a voter turnout of 65.08%, while the second phase on November 11 recorded 67.14% turnout by 5 pm.

Out of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, the majority mark stands at 122 seats. Within the NDA, the JD(U) and BJP contested 101 seats each, while LJP (RV) fought on 29 seats. Smaller allies like HAM(S) and RLM contested six seats each.

The Mahagathbandhan fielded RJD on 143 seats, Congress on 61, CPI on 9, CPI(M) on 4, CPI(ML)L on 20, and VIP on 15.

What is an exit poll?

An exit poll is a survey conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots. Pollsters ask voters who they supported and why, aiming to understand public mood and forecast results. However, while they give a sense of trends, they are not official results and may differ from the final outcome.