PTC Web Desk: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday lowered its southwest monsoon forecast for 2026, saying the country is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the June-September season.

The weather department has now predicted rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), lower than its earlier estimate of 92% issued in April. The LPA for the monsoon season is 87 cm.

According to IMD, there is a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon this year, while the possibility of normal rainfall remains very low.

M Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the revised forecast was prepared after considering both rainfall estimates and changing weather conditions.

Rain-fed farming regions may face pressure

The latest prediction has raised concerns for the agriculture sector because the monsoon core zone (MCZ), which includes major rain-fed farming areas, is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

IMD said rainfall is likely to remain below average across Central India, South Peninsular India and Northwest India. However, Northeast India may receive near-normal rainfall.

Several parts of the country are expected to witness weak rainfall activity during the monsoon season, while only a few pockets in Northwest, Northeast and East India may receive normal to above-normal rain.

Experts believe poor rainfall could impact crop production, water availability and hydropower generation. Lower rainfall may also increase the risk of drought and heat stress in many regions.

El Nino conditions expected to affect monsoon

The weather department said neutral ENSO conditions are slowly moving towards El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean.

IMD officials warned that weak El Nino conditions could develop as early as June, which may weaken monsoon activity further. In India, El Nino is usually linked with weaker monsoon rainfall and rising temperatures.

At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to continue during the season.

Kerala monsoon onset delayed

The southwest monsoon has still not reached Kerala, even though it usually arrives around June 1.

Earlier, IMD had predicted monsoon onset over Kerala around May 26. However, the latest forecast suggests a delay due to weather systems over the Arabian Sea and West Pacific region.

According to IMD, a typhoon over the West Pacific is pulling moisture away from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, while a cyclonic circulation near Lakshadweep is reducing rainfall activity over Kerala.

The department said rainfall over Kerala is expected to improve after June 11.

June likely to be hotter than normal

Apart from weak rainfall, IMD has also warned about severe heatwave conditions during June.

Above-normal heatwave days are expected in states including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Some areas of Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh may also face intense heat.

IMD Director General M Mohapatra said some regions could witness five to six heatwave days during June, which is higher than normal.

The weather department warned that rising temperatures may affect public health, water supply and electricity demand. Elderly people, children, outdoor workers and those with health issues are considered most vulnerable during prolonged heatwave conditions.

States advised to stay prepared

IMD has advised state governments and district administrations to remain prepared for both rainfall shortages and extreme heat conditions.

Authorities have been asked to ensure drinking water supply, cooling shelters and emergency health services remain ready during the summer period.

The department said it will continue issuing weekly forecasts and early warnings to help states manage the situation better.