India objects to WHO's method to calculate Covid mortality after report claims 4 mn deaths
New Delhi, April 17: India on Saturday objected to the World Health Organisation's (WHO) methodology to estimate the Covid-19 death toll in the country, arguing that the same mathematical model cannot be applied to estimate the mortalities of a country like India which has a large geographical size and population.
The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare stated that India has shared its concerns with the method along with the other Member States through a series of formal communications including six letters issued to WHO. The concern specifically includes how the statistical model projects estimates for a country of geographical size and population of India and also fits in with other countries which have lesser populations.
In a statement, the ministry responded to a New York Times article titled "India Is Stalling WHO's Efforts to Make Global COVID Death Toll Public" dated April 16 and said "India has been in regular and in-depth technical exchange with World Health Organisation (WHO) on the issue. The analysis while using mortality figures directly obtained from Tier -I set of countries, uses a mathematical modelling process for Tier II countries (which includes India). India's basic objection has not been with the result (whatever they might have been) but rather the methodology adopted for the same."
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During these exchanges, specific queries have been raised by India along with the other Member States e.g. China, Iran, Bangladesh, Syria, Ethiopia and Egypt regarding the methodology, and use of unofficial sets of data.
The model gives two highly different sets of excess mortality estimates when using the data from Tier I countries and when using unverified data from 18 Indian States, stated the ministry. "Such wide variation in estimates raises concerns about validity and accuracy of such a modelling exercise," it said.
The Ministry went on to say that the model assumes an inverse relationship between monthly temperature and monthly average deaths, despite the fact that there is no scientific evidence to support such an unusual empirical relationship. Because India is a country of continental proportions, climatic and seasonal conditions vary greatly between states and even within a state, resulting in widely varying seasonal patterns across the country. "Thus, estimating national level mortality based on these 18 States data is statistically unproven," it said.
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-PTC News
