India-Pakistan tensions could turn into armed conflict in 2026, warns US Think Tank
In its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report, the CFR assessed the risk of a fresh India-Pakistan conflict as having a “moderate likelihood”
PTC Web Desk: A renewed military confrontation between India and Pakistan in 2026 is a real possibility, according to a report released by a leading US-based think tank. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has warned that worsening security conditions and cross-border terrorism could push the two nuclear-armed neighbours back into armed conflict.
In its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report, the CFR assessed the risk of a fresh India-Pakistan conflict as having a “moderate likelihood” and said such a development would have a “moderate impact” on US interests.
Terror threat seen as key trigger
The report says the main risk factor is a possible rise in militant attacks, which could quickly escalate tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. It points out that even limited incidents in the past have triggered strong military responses, raising the danger of wider conflict.
Earlier this year, India and Pakistan were involved in a brief but intense four-day military confrontation marked by drone and missile strikes. The escalation followed India’s Operation Sindoor, launched after Pakistan-backed terrorists killed 22 civilians in Pahalgam. Indian forces targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.
Although Pakistan later sought a ceasefire, Indian agencies have continued to flag security concerns. Intelligence inputs have suggested that dozens of Pakistani terrorists remain active in parts of Jammu, keeping the region on alert despite the absence of major attacks in recent months.
Arms build-up raises concerns
The CFR report also highlighted the rapid pace of defence modernisation on both sides. India recently approved defence purchases worth around Rs 79,000 crore, including drones, air-to-air missiles and precision-guided bombs. Pakistan, meanwhile, is reported to be in talks with Turkey and China to upgrade its drone fleet and air defence systems after weaknesses were exposed during the recent clashes.
The report noted that the second Donald Trump administration has attempted to reduce global conflicts, including easing tensions between India and Pakistan, but underlying security risks remain unresolved.
Pakistan-Afghanistan border also a flashpoint
Apart from India-Pakistan tensions, the CFR flagged another potential conflict involving Pakistan. It warned of a moderate chance of armed clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026, though such a conflict would have a limited impact on US interests.
The concern stems from repeated cross-border militant attacks and ongoing instability along the Durand Line. In October, Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanged fire at multiple locations along the border, resulting in casualties on both sides. Each country accused the other of aggression, further straining already fragile relations.
Trade and diplomacy under strain
Since those clashes, ties between Islamabad and Kabul have worsened. Trade between the two neighbours has suffered, hitting Pakistan particularly hard. Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has increasingly turned towards other regional partners, including India, Iran and Turkey, to reduce its dependence on Pakistan.
The CFR report is designed to help US policymakers identify global hotspots that could affect American interests. It ranks potential conflicts into different tiers based on their likelihood and impact, classifying the India-Pakistan and Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions as risks that deserve close monitoring in the coming year.