Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions: Understanding the latest border clashes; and what next?

PTC Web Desk: Overnight air and ground strikes by Pakistan on several Afghan cities have dramatically escalated tensions between the two neighbouring countries, officials in Islamabad and Kabul confirmed on Friday. The attacks targeted Taliban military posts, headquarters and ammunition depots along multiple sectors of the shared border, following a retaliatory assault by Afghan forces on Pakistani border units.

Both sides report significant casualties, with Pakistan’s Defence Minister describing the situation as verging on “open war.”

Historical context: A fragile peace

The recent clashes mark a continuation of hostilities that first flared in October last year, when border skirmishes claimed several lives. A ceasefire was brokered with the help of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, temporarily halting direct conflict. However, the truce has repeatedly been challenged by renewed attacks and border closures, which have disrupted trade and civilian movement along the rugged frontier.

Initially, Pakistan welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan hailed the Afghan government’s takeover as the liberation of its people. Yet, Islamabad quickly realised that the Taliban leadership was less cooperative than anticipated.

Militancy and mutual accusations

Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harbouring fighters from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as well as separatist insurgents from Balochistan. According to Islamabad, these groups have been operating from Afghan territory to stage attacks on Pakistani soil, resulting in a marked rise in militancy since 2022. Afghan authorities deny these claims, insisting that no militant activities are sanctioned from their territory. Conversely, the Afghan Taliban accuse Pakistan of sheltering fighters affiliated with the Islamic State, a charge Pakistan rejects.

The latest flare-up reportedly follows evidence gathered by Pakistani security forces linking militants in Afghanistan to a series of deadly attacks, including one last week in Bajaur district that killed 11 security personnel and two civilians. The TTP claimed responsibility for this assault.

Who are the TTP?

Formed in 2007, the TTP is a coalition of extremist groups based primarily in northwest Pakistan. It has carried out attacks on civilian and military targets alike, including markets, mosques, airports and police stations. Notably, the TTP was behind the 2012 attack on Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai. The group has also collaborated with the Afghan Taliban against international forces in Afghanistan and operated from sanctuaries within Pakistan. Despite Pakistan’s military offensives against them, the TTP continues to pose a persistent security threat.

Military balance and future prospects

Analysts warn that the conflict could intensify, with Pakistan expected to escalate its air and ground operations, while Kabul may respond with raids on border posts or cross-border guerrilla tactics. There is a stark contrast in military capabilities: Pakistan fields over 600,000 active personnel, 400 combat aircraft, 6,000 armored vehicles and is a nuclear-armed state. In comparison, the Taliban have roughly 172,000 fighters, a small fleet of helicopters and transport aircraft, but no effective air force or fighter jets.

The situation remains volatile, with potential for further escalation unless diplomatic intervention or a renewed ceasefire can be achieved. For now, both countries are navigating a dangerous cycle of retaliation, highlighting the fragile and complex security dynamics along one of South Asia’s most sensitive borders.