India faces 55,000 El Niño heat deaths, says new tracker: What you need to know
PTC Web Desk: This year’s El Niño is shaping up to be one for the record books. The climate pattern is pumping huge amounts of heat out of the ocean, which is feeding droughts, floods and violent storms around the world. By September, sea temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific had climbed 3.08 degrees above normal, a rise bigger than in any El Niño on record. Some scientists have started calling it a “Super El Niño.”
Now a new tool is putting a human cost on that heat. The Climate Impact Lab has released the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker, which estimates that more than 373,000 people could die from the extra heat over the next six months.
Why the tracker matters
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said that predicting deadly heat in advance is a big step forward. According to him, it shows where people are most at risk and gives authorities time to act before lives are lost. He said the tracker applies this to the Super El Niño now underway.
Who will be hit hardest
The tracker finds that most of the deaths will fall on countries in the Global South.
India: About 55,000 heat-related deaths are projected between October and March, with most of them expected in March.
Nigeria: The projected toll is around 56,000, just above India’s.
Indonesia: Southeast Asia remains a major hotspot, with about 29,000 deaths projected.
Brazil: The toll is estimated at around 19,000.
Air pollution worry for Mumbai
Experts say El Niño could make Mumbai’s air quality worse. Large-scale winds over the city are likely to weaken, so Mumbai would lose some of the natural protection that stronger winds usually provide.
WMO: the worst is yet to come
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said this is the strongest El Niño since 1950. The agency expects it to keep building until it peaks in December. It warns that much of the world will see above-average temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns, raising the risk of both drought and floods. The effects are expected to linger into early 2027.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It changes winds, pressure and rainfall patterns across the globe. It tends to return every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months. The climate swings between El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
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- PTC NEWS
