India-Pakistan tension escalates: 4 steps up ‘escalation ladder’ in 17 days; how close are we to full-scale war?

PTC Web Desk: Over the past 17 days, India and Pakistan have taken four significant steps up the “escalation ladder,” a concept in military strategy that marks the intensification of conflict between two nations. This began on April 22, with a terrorist attack in Pahalgam and has since intensified to cross-border strikes and retaliatory military actions.

India conducted air strikes on terror camps inside Pakistan on May 7. In retaliation, Pakistan launched missile and drone attacks on Indian military bases the very next day. While neither side has officially declared war, the sequence of actions suggests a rapid progression toward open conflict.

So, what is the escalation ladder, how does it work, and what could happen next? Let’s examine the current India-Pakistan clash through the lens of the escalation ladder theory.

What is the Escalation Ladder?

The “escalation ladder” is a conceptual framework used in defense and international relations to understand and measure rising tensions between countries. It refers to a series of steps, starting from diplomatic spats or isolated incidents, escalating progressively toward total war or even nuclear conflict.

The term was popularised by American military strategist Herman Kahn in his 1965 book 'On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios'. Kahn identified 44 potential rungs on the ladder of military escalation. However, modern military experts generally condense this to seven major steps for easier strategic understanding.

This ladder helps countries assess how far a conflict has advanced and where it should ideally be stopped—especially in nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan, where unchecked escalation can have catastrophic consequences.

India-Pakistan Escalation Timeline (April 22 – May 8, 2025)

Here’s how both nations have climbed four steps on the escalation ladder in just over two weeks:

Step 1: April 22: Terror attack in Pahalgam

On April 22: A major terrorist attack occurred in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, resulting in multiple casualties. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri revealed on May 8 that the attack was backed by elements in Pakistan. This marked the first step of escalation.

Step 2: April 23 – Diplomatic and strategic sanctions

In response, the Indian government initiated a five-point action plan against Pakistan:

Reduced the number of Pakistani diplomats in India

Closed the Attari-Wagah border

Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty

Cancelled bilateral trade

Imposed strict visa regulations

Pakistan reciprocated with similar countermeasures, further straining bilateral relations.

Step 3: Late April – military mobilisation and threats

In the days following the Pahalgam attack:

Pakistan increased military deployments along the border.

Its political and military leadership issued veiled threats, including references to nuclear capabilities.

Both India and Pakistan began missile testing and initiated high-intensity military drills.

This third step signaled active military preparedness and psychological posturing—often a precursor to direct combat.

Step 4: May 7-8 – Direct military engagement

On May 7, India carried out a precise air strike on nine terror camps located in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). These were identified as training centres for cross-border militants.

In retaliation, on May 8, Pakistan launched missile and drone attacks on 15 Indian military installations. India’s S-400 air defense system intercepted and neutralised these threats, preventing significant damage.

India also retaliated by destroying Pakistan’s air defense systems early on May 8, leading to multiple air skirmishes later that night.

At this point, both sides had clearly crossed from strategic posturing to active combat, bringing them dangerously close to full-scale war.

Step 5: What lies ahead – full-scale war?

According to sources, full-scale war forms the fifth step of the escalation ladder. They say "no country formally declares war anymore. One side’s action leads to a retaliatory response, and the intensity of these responses determines how quickly the situation escalates.”

They added that 'India is in a war-like situation, but war itself hasn’t officially begun".

What is difference between war and military operations?

Understanding the distinction between full-fledged war and military operations is crucial in this context. 

Military Operation:

A well-defined and limited action aimed at eliminating specific threats.

Carefully planned to avoid collateral damage.

Targeted at particular individuals, groups, or installations.

Often conducted in response to a threat, not to conquer territory.

Example:

India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted terrorist camps, was a defensive measure to protect national security.

Full-Scale War

An all-out offensive involving large-scale bombing, destruction of infrastructure, and widespread military engagement.

Civilian areas and populations may be affected.

Aimed at altering the opponent’s political or military framework.

Example:

The 1999 Kargil conflict is considered a limited war. India’s objective was to reclaim occupied territories, which it achieved, marking a clear end to the conflict.

Tension mounts, but war is not inevitable

While the current trajectory of India and Pakistan’s military actions reflects a dangerous climb up the escalation ladder, experts believe there is still room for diplomatic de-escalation. History has shown that both nations have previously pulled back from the brink at critical junctures.

However, with both sides taking increasingly aggressive steps, and the world closely watching two nuclear powers inch closer to all-out war, the need for strategic restraint has never been greater.