PTC Web Desk: The 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election has delivered a political shocker. Actor-turned-politician Vijay led his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), to a stunning debut, winning 108 out of 234 seats. The performance has not only disrupted the long-standing Dravidian dominance but also positioned TVK as the single-largest party in the state.

However, despite the remarkable victory, the numbers tell a more complicated story. The majority mark in the Assembly stands at 118, leaving Vijay short by 10 seats. This gap has triggered intense political negotiations and speculation over whether he can still stake claim to power.

Congress support comes with conditions

In a significant development, the Congress party has extended support to TVK. However, the backing is conditional. The party has made it clear that it will stand with Vijay only if “communal forces” are kept out of the alliance framework.

With the Congress adding its five seats, TVK’s tally rises to 113. Even then, the coalition remains five seats short of the majority mark. The arithmetic, therefore, continues to pose a serious hurdle.

Governor holds the key

Amid the uncertainty, Vijay met Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar to stake his claim. However, the Governor has so far refrained from inviting him to form the government, citing the lack of demonstrated majority support.

Sources indicate that the Raj Bhavan is seeking legal clarity before making a decision. Traditionally, governors may invite the single-largest party to prove its majority on the floor of the House, but this remains discretionary.

Legal experts have also pointed to the SR Bommai v. Union of India judgment, which emphasises that a majority should ideally be tested through a floor test rather than subjective assessment.

AIADMK shuts doors on support

One of the most viable routes for Vijay could have been support from the AIADMK. However, the party, led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami, has categorically ruled out any such possibility.

Senior AIADMK leaders have dismissed speculation of backing TVK, calling such reports baseless. With 47 seats, AIADMK’s support could have comfortably taken Vijay past the majority mark, but that option appears closed for now.

What about smaller allies?

Attention has now shifted to smaller parties that were part of the DMK-led alliance. These include VCK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML and DMDK. The responses so far have been mixed and largely discouraging for TVK:

IUML has firmly declined support, reiterating its ideological commitment to the DMK alliance led by MK Stalin.

CPM has also indicated that it will not break ranks.

VCK has not taken a final decision yet, keeping a narrow window open.

Even if VCK’s two MLAs extend support, TVK’s numbers would rise to 115, still short of the majority.

Internal arithmetic adds to trouble

Complicating matters further is the internal adjustment TVK must make. Vijay has won from two constituencies and will have to vacate one within the stipulated period. Additionally, if a TVK MLA is elected Speaker, they will not vote in the House.

This effectively reduces TVK’s working strength from 108 to around 106, before a bypoll potentially restores one seat. The shifting numbers make the path to 118 even more challenging.

Constitutional options and political strategy

With no clear majority in sight, two possible scenarios could unfold:

The Governor may invite Vijay as the leader of the largest party to prove his majority on the floor.

Alternatively, he may ask for written support from other parties before extending an invitation.

So far, the Governor appears cautious, preferring concrete proof over political claims.

Unless TVK manages to secure additional support in the coming days, the state may witness prolonged political uncertainty. Backroom negotiations, shifting alliances or even a fresh political arrangement cannot be ruled out.

For now, the central question remains unanswered: will Vijay translate his electoral success into power or will the numbers deny him the final step?