IMD forecasts active phase of monsoon with more rains this week

New Delhi, July 17: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the onset of another active phase of the southwest monsoon, following the recent interaction between a western disturbance and monsoon winds that resulted in heavy rain and floods across northern India. A low-pressure area has formed over northern Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, and Jharkhand, which is anticipated to bring heavy and widespread rainfall to central and eastern India over the next five days. 

While the west coast will experience increased rainfall, parts of northwest India, including Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, will continue to receive heavy downpours for at least two more days.

M Mohapatra, Director General at the weather office, stated that active monsoon conditions are expected over central India for the next week. A low-pressure area has already formed, and another cyclonic circulation is likely to develop around Tuesday, contributing to significant rainfall that may compensate for the rain deficiency in central and peninsular regions. 

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The influence of El Niño, which typically weakens monsoon rainfall, has not yet been observed in India, despite El Niño conditions having been established earlier this month, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization.

Rainfall distribution during the monsoon season has been highly imbalanced since June 1, with no overall deficiency but a 49 per cent excess in northwest India, a 19 per cent deficiency in eastern and northeastern India, a 22 per cent deficiency in peninsular India, and a 1 per cent excess in central India. Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 15 are recording deficient rain, 10 are experiencing normal rain, five are experiencing excess rain, and six are witnessing large excess rain. 

Following a delayed onset over Kerala on June 8, the monsoon faced weak conditions for two weeks due to the influence of Cyclone Biparjoy. However, rainfall deficiency was reduced to 10 per cent by the end of June.

The formation of the low-pressure area over northern Odisha and nearby regions will lead to increased rainfall in east and central India, including Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. This system is expected to interact with a cyclonic circulation over Gujarat, resulting in rainfall along the west coast, particularly in east Rajasthan and Gujarat up to Vidarbha. Additionally, a western disturbance over north Pakistan is likely to interact with these systems, bringing good rainfall to Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, and parts of the hills.

While El Niño typically influences the southwest monsoon in India by causing weaker rains, its impact varies throughout the season, and active monsoon conditions can still occur even during El Niño years. El Niño is characterised by abnormal warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which correlates with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India, as well as extreme weather events such as floods and droughts.

The World Meteorological Organization reported that the world experienced the hottest week on record from June 3 to 7, following the hottest June ever recorded, which was marked by unprecedented sea surface temperatures and record-low Antarctic sea ice extent. 

The statement from the weather agency comes at a time when regions like Himachal Pradesh, northern Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi have witnessed unprecedented rainfall and significant damage to bridges, highways, and infrastructure.

Christopher Hewitt, WMO's Director of Climate Services, expressed concern about the planet's future, stating that as El Niño develops further, more records are expected to be broken, resulting in increased extreme temperatures and marine heatwaves extending into 2024.

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- With inputs from agencies

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