Third wave to see rise in Jan-end, but sharp decline in mid-March: Expert
"As per preliminary data, cases (nationally) of the third wave will peak by the end of this month and are likely to cross second wave numbers. Since this time the peak is coming up very rapidly, the rise in Covid-19 cases is very sharp," said Manindra Agrawal.
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"We expect the decline also to be equally sharp and if the peak hits in January, then by the middle of March, the wave will be over," he said.
The IIT-Kanpur professor said Delhi was reporting more than 22,000 cases per day; the national capital will report almost 40,000 cases per day at its peak, which is expected to hit in mid-January.
"Coronavirus cases in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata are likely to peak around the middle of this month, in the next few days in fact. But this wave will be almost over by the end of this month in these cities," he said.
On election rallies that can spread Covid-19 further, he said, "If you look at only election rallies as a cause for the spread, that is wrong. Many things called the spreading and election rallies are just one of them. And if one believes that just by stopping election rallies, you will stop the spread that is not correct." Professor Agrawal with other researchers runs the SUTRA computer model that tracks the Covid-19 curve in the country.
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India reported 1,79,723 new Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking the daily positivity rate in the country to 13.29 per cent, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Monday. A total of 4,033 cases of Omicron variant of Covid-19 have been reported so far. Maharashtra has reported the highest number of cases (1,216), followed by Rajasthan (529) and Delhi (513).
-PTC News
