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Economic Survey projects 8-8.5 GDP growth for FY 2022-23

By Rajan Nath -- January 31, 2022 3:10 pm -- Updated:January 31, 2022 3:14 pm

New Delhi, January 31: India's economic growth is expected to remain in the range of 8 to 8.5 percent in 2022-23 as against a projected growth of 9.2 percent in the current financial year and a sharp contraction witnessed in 2020-21, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled ahead of Union Budget 2022 in the Parliament on Monday.

"With the vaccination programme having covered the bulk of the population, economic momentum building back, and the likely long-term benefits of supply-side reforms in the pipeline, the Indian economy is in a good position to witness GDP growth of 8.0-8.5 percent in 2022-23," said the annual Economic survey report released ahead of the Union Budget.

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However, the report presented in the parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted the challenges arising out of the new Covid-19 variants and uncertainties in the global economy.

"The global environment still remains uncertain. At the time of writing, a new wave in the form of the Omicron variant was sweeping across the world, inflation had jumped up in most countries, and the cycle of liquidity withdrawal was being initiated by major central banks. This is why it is especially important to look at India's macroeconomic stability indicators and their ability to provide a buffer against the above stresses," it said.

Overall, macro-economic stability indicators suggest that the Indian economy is well placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23, it said.

One of the reasons that the Indian economy is in a good position is its unique response strategy. Rather than pre-commit to a rigid response, the Government of India opted to use safety-nets for vulnerable sections on one hand while responding iteratively based on Bayesian-updating of information.

This "barbell strategy" was discussed in last year's Economic Survey. A key enabler of this flexible, iterative "Agile" approach is the use of eighty High-Frequency Indicators (HFIs) in an environment of extreme uncertainty.

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-PTC News

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