Economic Survey 2025–26: India’s GDP growth seen at 6.8–7.2% in FY27 amid global uncertainty
PTC Web Desk: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday presented the Economic Survey 2025–26 in the Lok Sabha, offering the government’s assessment of India’s economic performance ahead of the Union Budget. The Survey reviews key areas such as economic growth, inflation, fiscal health, external trade and emerging challenges.
According to the Survey, India’s real GDP growth for FY27 is expected to be in the range of 6.8% to 7.2%. This projection is based on steady domestic demand and overall macroeconomic stability, even as the global economy continues to face uncertainty.
Last year’s Economic Survey for 2024–25 had projected GDP growth of 6.3% to 6.8% for FY26 and described the outlook as balanced. The latest estimate suggests a modest improvement in growth expectations for the coming financial year.
However, the Economic Survey cautioned that the global economic outlook remains weak. It noted that global growth is likely to stay moderate in the medium term, which could keep commodity prices largely stable. Inflation has eased in several major economies, creating room for central banks to adopt more growth-friendly monetary policies.
The Economic Survey also flagged risks to global growth. It warned that if the artificial intelligence-led boom does not translate into real productivity gains, it could trigger a correction in overvalued assets and cause financial stress. Prolonged trade disputes were also highlighted as a factor that could hurt investment and slow global growth further.
Despite these challenges, the Survey noted that India’s economy showed resilience even after facing steep tariff hikes by the United States. Growth projections were revised downward after the US imposed tariffs of up to 50% on many Indian exports in 2025. However, actual growth turned out stronger than expected due to structural reforms and timely policy measures that helped the economy absorb the external shock.
On the financial sector, the Economic Survey stressed that regulators need to strike a careful balance between encouraging growth and ensuring stability. It said India must remain open to global capital flows while protecting the economy from volatile external shocks through a cautious and calibrated approach.
On inflation, the Survey said price pressures are expected to rise gradually in the next fiscal year but remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s target range. While a weaker rupee could lead to some imported inflation, the impact is likely to be limited due to soft global commodity prices, especially crude oil, and easing food inflation. However, firm prices of metals like gold, silver and copper could keep core inflation elevated. Both the RBI and the IMF expect headline inflation to gradually move towards the 4% target over the next two years.
The Survey also highlighted the strong performance of services exports. In FY25, services exports reached a record USD 387.5 billion, registering a growth of 13.6% year-on-year. Services imports also increased by 11.4% to USD 198.7 billion, driven by sectors such as IT services, global capability centres and professional services.
- With inputs from agencies
