El Niño could be linked to 4.5 lakh additional heat-related deaths by February 2027, report says
PTC Web Desk: A strengthening El Niño could lead to around 4,51,000 additional deaths linked to extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a new estimate from the Climate Impact Lab.
The figure does not represent deaths that have already occurred or a confirmed prediction of future deaths. Instead, it estimates the additional number of heat-related deaths that could occur compared with an average year, using 1996 to 2025 as the baseline.
Climate Impact Lab is a research collaboration that brings together climate science, economics and data analysis to study how climate change and extreme weather affect people and communities.
Global South could face the biggest impact
The estimated impact is expected to be concentrated largely in countries across the Global South.
The Sahel region could face the largest burden, with an estimated 66,800 additional heat-related deaths. The estimate includes around 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad.
Several Southeast Asian countries could also see a significant increase. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together could record an estimated 19,400 additional deaths, while Indonesia's estimate stands at around 19,300.
Brazil is estimated to see about 13,300 additional deaths, while the figure for India is around 15,800.
Why the estimate matters
Researchers say such estimates can help governments prepare for periods of dangerous heat.
Measures such as early heat warnings, cooling centres, access to drinking water, protection for outdoor workers and additional pressure on healthcare systems could help reduce the impact of extreme temperatures.
The findings are particularly important for countries where large numbers of people work outdoors or where access to cooling and healthcare can be limited.
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El Niño likely to strengthen further
The heat concerns come as the current El Niño is continuing to strengthen.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on September 3 that El Niño was firmly established and expected to become a very strong event in the coming months. WMO forecasts put the likelihood of the phenomenon continuing through February 2027 at nearly 100%.
NOAA has also reported that El Niño is strengthening. Its September 10 assessment put the chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27 at more than 90%. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific had crossed 3°C, while the Niño-3.4 region recorded an anomaly of about 1.8°C.
WMO expects the event to strengthen further and reach its peak around the end of 2026. Its effects on temperatures and rainfall could continue into 2027.
India and Pakistan could see rising heat deaths in 2027
The Climate Impact Lab analysis also warns that the heat-related death toll could continue to rise beyond the current six-month assessment period.
Researchers expect countries such as India and Pakistan to face increasing heat-related mortality as they enter their summer months in 2027.
This means the impact of the current El Niño may not end when the February 2027 forecast period concludes.
Signs of rising global heat already visible
The latest El Niño concerns come against a backdrop of unusually high global temperatures.
Climate researchers say the combination of long-term global warming and the developing El Niño could push temperatures higher in several parts of the world during the coming months.
The WMO has warned that a very strong El Niño can significantly alter global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different regions.
The Climate Impact Lab describes the current situation as a glimpse of what future climate conditions could look like, with the projected heat conditions resembling temperatures that climate models expect to become more common in the coming decades.
- With inputs from agencies
