Delhi elections 2025: AAP’s stronghold in Delhi crumbles:What lies ahead for Arvind Kejriwal and his party?
Delhi elections 2025: The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which emerged from the anti-corruption movement and established its political dominance in Delhi, appears to be losing its stronghold in the capital. As per the latest trends and election results, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to form a government with an absolute majority in Delhi. This significant electoral shift raises several questions about the future of Arvind Kejriwal and his party.
Here, we will try to analyse possible repercussions of AAP’s defeat in Delhi | Understand in Points
AAP’s collapse in Delhi could lead to party breakdown
As per political analysts, AAP was founded in Delhi, and its headquarters remain in the national capital. The party made its political debut in the 2013 Delhi Assembly elections, winning 28 seats. In the subsequent elections, it achieved landslide victories, winning 67 out of 70 seats in 2015 and 62 seats in 2020. However, AAP’s origins lie in a movement, and its members are not seasoned politicians. If the party loses power in Delhi, a large section of its members and leaders might abandon it.
This prediction is supported by recent events. In the past few months, 10 sitting AAP MLAs have defected to the BJP. This suggests that members who had earlier switched from other parties to join AAP might return to their original affiliations. There is also a possibility of internal factions emerging within the party.
The party had leveraged its ‘Delhi model’ to secure victory in Punjab’s 2022 Assembly elections and establish itself as the second-largest party in several constituencies in Gujarat. However, a defeat in Delhi could impact its prospects in the upcoming elections in Punjab and Gujarat, scheduled for 2026.
Major dent in Arvind Kejriwal’s image and authority
Arvind Kejriwal has been the undisputed leader of AAP since its inception, dominating the party’s decision-making process. Several prominent leaders, such as Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, and Kumar Vishwas, were ousted from the party when they opposed Kejriwal’s leadership.
According to sources, Arvind Kejriwal had positioned the Delhi elections as a referendum on his honesty and leadership. Following his bail in the liquor policy scam, he had declared on September 15, 2024, that he would not remain Chief Minister unless the people reaffirmed their trust in him. His defeat would suggest that the electorate has rejected him, dealing a severe blow to his political credibility.
With Kejriwal’s authority weakened, dissenting voices within the party may become more vocal. Party members who earlier refrained from challenging his leadership might now speak up, leading to a possible restructuring within AAP.
BJP will intensify efforts to dismantle AAP
Unlike ideological parties such as the BJP, Congress, or the Communist Party, AAP lacks a foundational ideology and was primarily formed to gain power. Its survival depends on remaining in power.
AAP’s political strategies have often made the BJP uneasy. Over the years, the BJP has systematically worked towards weakening AAP by initiating legal actions against its leaders and encouraging defections within the party. This trend is likely to intensify, with the BJP employing every possible means to dismantle AAP.
Will Kejriwal again face jail after Delhi loss?
Upon his release from Tihar Jail on September 13, 2024, Arvind Kejriwal had boldly declared that his spirit was stronger than ever and that BJP’s attempts to break him had failed. However, with the election results turning against him, the tables have turned.
The Modi vs. Kejriwal political narrative appears to be collapsing. The BJP has reportedly begun preparations to send Kejriwal back to prison. On January 7, Delhi’s Lieutenant Governor (LG) VK Saxena authorised an Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) raid at Kejriwal’s residence. ACB officials also conducted searches at the homes of AAP leaders Sanjay Singh and Mukesh Ahlawat.
The sources say corruption cases against AAP leaders, particularly in the liquor policy scam, will persist. On January 31, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had warned in a speech in Dwarka that corruption cases against AAP would face strict action after the elections. If this materialises, central investigative agencies could escalate their legal proceedings against AAP leaders, including Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh, and Satyendar Jain.
AAP to focus on retaining Punjab and strengthening Gujarat
Following its loss in Delhi, AAP’s primary goal will be to safeguard its rule in Punjab. The election defeat could demoralise its leaders and workers in Punjab, creating an opportunity for the BJP to expand its influence. Despite BJP’s limited presence in Punjab—currently holding only two seats—the party has a history of significantly increasing its footprint, as seen in states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
With Kejriwal’s leadership being questioned after the defeat, AAP may consider appointing a new national convener. The party might opt for a leader who has a proven administrative track record, such as Manish Sisodia, or a more vocal and aggressive leader, such as Sanjay Singh or Saurabh Bharadwaj.
Apart from Punjab, AAP’s leadership will also face the challenge of sustaining its momentum in Gujarat. In the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections, the party won five seats and secured the runner-up position in 35 constituencies. Retaining this foothold will be crucial for AAP’s future ambitions.
- With inputs from agencies
