Weather update India: India is likely to witness below-normal rainfall during August and September, the second half of the southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The weather agency said rainfall during August was expected to remain below the seasonal average, while the overall monsoon had continued to record a rainfall deficit despite an improvement in July. The forecast was announced during an IMD press conference on Friday.

August rainfall expected to stay below normal

The IMD said rainfall across the country during August is likely to remain below normal, with precipitation expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The normal rainfall for the month is 254.9 mm.

The department also projected below-normal rainfall for the August-September period, indicating that the latter half of the southwest monsoon may not bring widespread relief to many regions.

Although monsoon activity strengthened during July compared to June, the month's cumulative rainfall stood at 283.3 mm. According to the IMD, this makes July the 12th driest since 2001, placing it among the weakest July rainfall performances in the historical record.

The weather department noted that the overall distribution of rainfall improved significantly during the month.

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The IMD Director General of Meteorology, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, said rainfall conditions improved across many districts during July. He said the proportion of districts receiving normal or above-normal rainfall increased from 30% (224 districts) in June to 53% (388 districts) in July. At the same time, the number of districts experiencing deficient or largely deficient rainfall declined from 69% (508 districts) in June to 46% (344 districts) in July, reflecting a better spread of monsoon rains during the month.

El Niño conditions expected to strengthen

The IMD also said moderate El Niño conditions continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain above normal.

According to the department, these El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen further during the remaining southwest monsoon season, a factor that could influence rainfall patterns over India.

Temperatures likely to stay above normal

Apart from rainfall, the IMD has forecast above-normal monthly average maximum temperatures over most parts of the country during August. However, some parts of northwest and central India, along with isolated pockets of the southern peninsula, are expected to experience normal to below-normal daytime temperatures.

Monsoon still running below normal

Despite the improvement in July, India continues to face an overall rainfall shortfall this monsoon season. Between June and July, the country received 389.8 mm of rainfall against the normal average of 445.8 mm, resulting in a seasonal deficit of 12.6%.