PTC Web Desk: The southwest monsoon is likely to reach northwest India earlier than usual this year. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon may arrive around June 20, nearly four to six days ahead of its normal schedule.

As per IMD’s latest forecast, the monsoon is expected to touch eastern parts of Himachal Pradesh and northeastern Uttarakhand by June 20. It may spread across most parts of both states by June 25.

The rain system is then likely to move into eastern Punjab and Haryana by June 30 and cover most parts of northwest India by July 5. Western Rajasthan is expected to receive monsoon rains by July 8.

Early arrival rare, but seen before

An onset before June 20 is uncommon but not new. Since 2000, such early arrival has happened only five times,  in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2021.

Last year too, the monsoon reached the region on June 20, while it arrived on June 27 in 2024 and June 29 in 2022.

IMD predicts below-normal rainfall

Despite the early arrival, the IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall for the country this season. The department expects rainfall to remain around 92 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 870 mm.

Weather experts say El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean could weaken the monsoon during the June-September season.

However, some improvement may happen later in the season due to favourable conditions developing over the Indian Ocean.

Big difference from last year

The forecast is very different from last year’s monsoon season, when India received 108 per cent of normal rainfall.

Northwest India saw heavy excess rain in 2025, with Punjab receiving 41 per cent more rainfall than normal, Himachal Pradesh 39 per cent and Haryana 33 per cent. The excess rainfall had caused severe flooding in several areas.

Reservoirs currently in better position

Water storage levels in major reservoirs are currently higher than normal, offering some relief if rainfall remains low this year.

According to the Central Water Commission, water storage in 166 reservoirs across the country is 24 per cent above the seasonal average.

In the north, Bhakra, Pong and Kol dams in Himachal Pradesh are holding 43 per cent more water than normal, while Punjab’s Thein Dam is 52 per cent above average levels.