Reverberations from Russia's Ukraine invasion are felt in China
Hong Kong, March 2: In one fell swoop, Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has forced a momentous change in thinking for Western leaders and strategists. Putin's willingness to go to war demonstrates how other authoritarian leaders - like Xi Jinping in China - could also act in ways the West finds irrational and unexpected.
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The consensus has been that China would not really invade Taiwan, that such a gamble would cost China too much militarily, economically and diplomatically. However, the calculus has now changed, for Xi is cut from the same cloth as Putin. The bloody invasion of Ukraine - a democratic nation assaulted by an authoritarian state - must cause a reevaluation of assumptions about the risk appetite in both Russia and China. This soul-searching should have far-reaching implications for not only Europe and the USA, but for Asia too.'
Putin's war has shattered the illusion of countries like Germany, forcing a profound rethink. The same needs to happen in Asia vis-a-vis China, but it is likely that too many will pay little heed to this lesson.
Xi and Putin have overseen strengthening bilateral ties, underscored when Putin met Xi during the Winter Olympics on February 5. The timing of Putin's invasion, just four days after the Olympics concluded, perhaps indicates some degree of collusion.
It is impossible to know what was discussed at their meeting, but surely a potential war against Ukraine was high on the agenda. The two countries released an unprecedented joint statement where China expressed "sympathy" and "support" for Russian demands for "binding security guarantees in Europe".
Some analysts draw a direct link. Angela Stent, a Russian specialist at Georgetown University, told the Center for Strategic and International Studies: "I want to underline that Vladimir Putin would not have embarked on this aggression against Ukraine at this time if he didn't know that he would have Chinese support. It's not the reason he's done it, but I agree it's the timing and the fact that he knew that whatever happened the Chinese would be there for him."
Russia invaded Georgia just one week before the Beijing Olympics in 2008, but now, as the two strongmen practice mutual support, Putin waited till a week after the Winter Olympics before attacking Ukraine.
Indeed, Stent noted: "Now that relationship...is much stronger ... We have a different Chinese leader. We're in a different world now. And so I think this is an essential backdrop for understanding what Putin is doing."
Patricia M. Kim, a Fellow at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution, commented: "Beijing has made a grave strategic miscalculation in aligning closely with Moscow at a time when states around the world are unequivocally condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine."
A senior official in the White House revealed, "The US in December 2021 warned China in a a diplomatic exchange that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine. Our information indicates that China then relayed that information to Russia, noting that the US was attempting to sow the division between China and Russia, and that China would not try to dissuade Russia from invading."
If Putin did tell Xi of his plans at their Beijing meeting, then China helped establish a smokescreen. If Putin did not, then this suggests the USA is more trustworthy than Russia, an intolerable proposition for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is in Chinese leaders' DNA to mistrust the USA, seeing the "rules-based international order" as an excuse for American hegemony.
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Both Putin and Xi see each other as an ally in pushing back against the West, and neither will do anything to weaken the domestic position of the other. In common, they have perceived outstanding grievances and are seeking to reorder the global political landscape.
-PTC News
